Source of Rams 2012 Touchdowns ???

There are a lot of stats out there to rank the performance of a team or player.  I’ve always said the bottom line comes down to scoring the ball.  Penalties are important, sacks are important, and goal line defensive stops are important, but if your offense can’t get into the end zone then none of it really matters.  So, if we want to apply a little reverse engineering we could ask, “Where are the points going to come from in 2012”?  Over the past 5 years the Rams have averaged 230 points per year (PPY).  To put this into perspective over the last 5 years the Steelers have scored an average of 362 PPY, the Packers 463 PPY, and even our division rivals the SF 49ers 309 PPY.  (FYI, in 1999 the Rams scored 526, in 2000 it was 540, and in 2001 it was 503.)  (According to Pro Football Reference)

So what are our expectations for 2012?  To be honest, I’m thinking Rams management is not looking for a big year.  2012 will be a rebuilding year and if some progress is made and if key position players stay healthy, then 2013 would be the year to make a push.  For arguments sake let’s say the Rams would be extremely happy to pull off a 7-9 or 8-8 season (I would be).  How many points would it take to make this happen?  In 2010 we went 7-9 while scoring 289 points.  Back in 2006, the Rams went 8-8 and it took them scoring 367 points to accomplish this.  Let’s say our goal for 2012 is to score 325 points?  Sound reasonable?  Now where are those points going to come from?

From our current roster:

RUSHING

NAME EXP 2012 PTS
Anderson, Todd R
Jackson, Steven 9 49
Middleton, Calvin R
Miller, Brit 4 14
Pead, Isaiah R
Reynolds, Chase 1
Richardson, Daryl R
Schweiger, Nicholas R
Total 63

(See where I’m going with this?)

RECEIVING

NAME EXP 2012 PTS
Alexander, Danario 3 14
Amendola, Danny 3 21
Campbell, Mike
Gibson, Brandon 4
Givens, Chris R 7
Johnson, Nick R
Pettis, Austin 2 7
Quick, Brian R
Salas, Greg 2
Smith, Steve 6 14
Steven Jackson 9 21
Total 84

There are 4 more areas where it’s possible to score points: interceptions, punt returns, kick returns, and field goals (yes I know and safeties).  Of the first 3, the Rams have almost nothing over the last 5 years.  That leaves field goals.  Of course we just traded our veteran kicker and will be going with a rookie field goal kicker (Greg Zuerlein) as our starter.  Here are Josh Brown’s stats for last year (according to NFL.com):

20-29 A

20-29 M

30-39 A

30-39 M

40-49 A

40-49 M

50+ A

7

7

7

6

12

8

2

That’s 49 field goals for a total of 147 points.  If I shave off 10% for our rookie’s lack of experience, we are looking at 132 points from field goals.  This brings us to a 2012 forecasted total of 279 which leaves us 46 points short of our arbitrary goal.

So, my point assignments are pretty random.  So, some of these people will not even be on the final roster.  Some of them, maybe rookies, could do a lot more.  What do you think?  Will the Rams have a decent year in 2012?


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