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St. Louis Rams: On The 10 Year Mark

2010 marks the 8th time is Rams history they’ve played on a 10 year mark year (1940, 1950, 1960… etc).  Any professional athlete will tell you that they can be very superstitious.  If they won wearing a certain pair of grimy socks, or a ripped tennis shoe, or even after some strange pre-game morning ritual, there is a good chance those same dirty socks or aged shoes or odd rituals will be worn or repeated over and over.  But what about certain years or groups of years?  Do players take stock in how their team has performed every other year?  Every 5 years?  How about every 10 years?  Since we have some data to look at, and since next season is a 10-yr increment year, what type of performance should we expect from our Rams?

Check out the graph below:

The axis across the bottom shows the wins, losses and ties, of the Rams for every 10-yr year going back to 1940.  The left axis has the numerical values.  Of the 7 10-yr years so far, 4 of them were winning years and in 3 of those 4 years the Rams made it to the post season (1950, 1980, and 2000).  Looking at the chart we see a losing season in 1940 followed by a winning season in 1950.  Then a losing season followed by 2 winning seasons.  Next (1990), we have a losing season followed by a winning season in 2000.  If this trend were to continue (1+1, 1+2, and 1+3) we should also see winning seasons in 2010 and 2020.  Linear regression on the winning columns supports this with an upward trend line.

We can take this 1 step further.  In the last 4 10-yr years, there are 2 teams we have beaten every single year.  Those teams are the SF 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons.  Since 1940 of the 7 10-yr years so far, we have beaten Detroit 3 times, Green Bay 4 times, New York 6 times (includes 1950 Yanks, Jets, Giants, and Buffalo), San Francisco 5 times, and finally the Falcons 4 times.  In many of these seasons we had multiple wins over these teams.

So, my dirty sock forecast for 2010 has us beating the 49ers, Giants, Bills, Falcons, Packers, and Lions.  That’s 6 wins.  If we can muster up 3 more wins (maybe the Chiefs, Skins, and Bucs), then we can continue to prove these stats true.  And players, whatever you have done each of these 10-yr years, let’s stick with it and keep this winning trend alive.

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